SWODY1
SPC AC 242003
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0303 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.
...WESTERN NE...
SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN LOW CENTER COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.
...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. INDICIES DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009
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