Thursday, September 24, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241623
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1123 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING NW-W
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION OVER THIS REGION. WV IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SUCH AREA OF ASCENT SUPPORTING SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION INTO SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
W AND THEN SW ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS THEY MOVE WNWWD TODAY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS THE MID
MO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

..15_OWS.. 09/24/2009

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