Monday, November 7, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2291

ACUS11 KWNS 072259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072258
KSZ000-OKZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND A PORTION OF NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072258Z - 080030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR PONCA CITY OK ENEWD
THROUGH SERN KS AND CNTRL MO. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW
SWWD INTO SWRN OK. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THIS
EVENING ALLOWING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH 500 J/KG
MLCAPE TO ADVECT INTO SERN KS. A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
N-CNTRL OK NNEWD TO NEAR EMPORIA KS AND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15
KT. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SIZEABLE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT IN KAY COUNTY OF N-NCNTRL OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SERN KS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THREAT COULD BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36399676 37209672 37739636 37869562 37549488 36469576
36399676

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