SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072304
TXZ000-080000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072304Z - 080000Z
TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONGOING TSTMS NEAR SFC COLD FRONT SEGMENT ARCING
WNWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...LIKELY AIDED BY INCREASING FORCED
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF A SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
NELY STORM MOTION WILL CAUSE TSTMS TO MOVE INTO LOWER THETA-E
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KTS OF 3-6 KM AGL LAYER FLOW
/PER TCU AND JTN PROFILER DATA/...SOME ROTATING TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF
THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF A WW ...BUT
TRENDS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS.. 11/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35530048 34980100 34690155 34500196 34540242 34770273
35110293 35380260 35690197 35990102 35910053 35530048
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