SWODY1
SPC AC 070559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WHERE A THREAT FOR
HAIL LIKELY EXISTING IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX AND SW
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX.
AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD LATE THIS MORNING...THE
STRONGEST SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ITS WAKE ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM WRN OK SSWWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUGGEST AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL FROM I-40 IN WRN OK SWD INTO NW TX WHERE A HATCHED THREAT FOR
HAIL IS INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S F SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO. A SMALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED FROM NEAR CLINTON OK SWD TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TX.
AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN KS SSWWD INTO
NW TX SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON IF A NEARLY CONTINUES SQUALL-LINE CAN BECOME
WELL-ORGANIZED AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LINE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND MUCH FURTHER EAST. THIS SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
EWD INTO ECNTRL OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINALIZED THREAT BY LATE
EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011
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