SWODY2
SPC AC 070644
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NRN OK TUE
MORNING...TREKKING NEWD INTO NERN MO BY 00Z/9TH WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN AR AND NERN TX AT THAT TIME. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL BRING LOWER 60S F DEWPOINT AS FAR N AS
THE LOW CENTER...WITH MID 60S F ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM NEAR THE LOW
CENTER OVER SERN KS/NRN OK SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO TX. WITH
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR BENEATH THE EJECTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A 40-50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...LAPSE RATE PROFILES MAY BE
QUITE MOIST AND THEREFORE MAY HELP MITIGATE THE HAIL THREAT.
ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OR CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD AND THE LOW TRACKS INTO SWRN MO. THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WINDS...PERHAPS IN QLCS
FASHION...WILL BE OVER ERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND WRN
AR. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING AS WELL AS MOST FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FOR BOTH SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. MAIN LIMITATION TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL TORNADOES APPEARS
TO BE THE OVERALL POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY LINEAR
STRUCTURES...INCLUDING BOWS...MAY HAVE AREAS OF ROTATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS FORECAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
PROFILES DUE TO ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN.
SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 00Z...DECREASING THEREAFTER AS
THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
..JEWELL.. 11/07/2011
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