SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072041
TXZ000-072215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072041Z - 072215Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MATURE
NEAR AND N OF ABI ALONG A SUBTLE ZONE OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE. AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT DEEP LAYER
W-SWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS
FORECAST TO ENLARGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR WAVE TO THE W. THIS WILL LEAD TO
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2 S-2...WHICH MAY FAVOR A TORNADO OR
TWO.
..GARNER.. 11/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31730060 32690083 33400029 33559917 33279825 32239863
31579957 31730060
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