SWODY1
SPC AC 071246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TX. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND HELP TO PRODUCE THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS OK IN A
REGION OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP
TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TX AND WESTERN OK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MOST MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MAX
HEATING PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.
THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
AFTER DARK...A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND
WESTERN OK. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GROW RATHER QUICKLY INTO A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
WHILE THE INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WITH
THESE STORMS THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
..HART/COHEN.. 11/07/2011
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