Monday, November 7, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070943
SWOD48
SPC AC 070942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE THU/D4 TO
SAT/D6 PERIOD. AN ERN TROUGH ON D4-D5 WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY
WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BY SAT/D6...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS HELPING
TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THERE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THIS SWRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D7...WITH SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL. A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SWRN
STATES INTO MON/D8 AS WELL...MAINTAINING A DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN
TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.

GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LOW PREDICTABILITY...MODELS WOULD NOT
INDICATE A NEED FOR ANY D7 OR D8 SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 11/07/2011

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