SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071930
KSZ000-OKZ000-072130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071930Z - 072130Z
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT N OF TORNADO
WATCH #870...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY -- SHOWS SOME NWD DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO N
CENTRAL OK AND FAR S CENTRAL/SERN KS...THOUGH NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE OPPOSED BY PERSISTENT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO HINDER NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME ADVANCEMENT
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW NWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH DEGREE OF POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN -- AS THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS DIRECTLY TIED TO WARM
FRONTAL PROGRESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
GREATER WITH ONGOING/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION INTO SERN KS ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS. WHILE ANTICIPATED HAIL SIZE DOES NOT
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER TIME IF
THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL BECOMES MORE APPARENT...OR IF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS OBSERVED THUS
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 11/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37859808 37979666 37809553 37049539 36409718 35939791
35949968 37109910 37859808
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