Friday, September 25, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260051
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD
THROUGH WRN OK AND CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BAND
OF DEEP LIFT ATTENDING A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW.
THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.


...TN VALLEY REGION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND
SRN OH VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING ASCENT RESULTING FROM
AN UPPER SPEED MAX THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN 40+ KT BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TN VALLEY...LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK WITH DEEP MOIST
PROFILES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORECAST LIMITED LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE TO THE FORCING AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH 700 MB WILL LIKELY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 09/26/2009

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