Wednesday, November 4, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050047
SWODY1
SPC AC 050046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY REGION TO GA...AND
RIDGE OVER ROCKIES. SLOW-MOVING LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NRN BAHAMAS WSWWD ACROSS S FL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD.

...S FL...
UNMODIFIED 00Z EYW/MFL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO REPRESENT MARINE AIR MASS
THAT WILL BE SHUNTED LARGELY OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND FL OVERNIGHT BY
LAND-BREEZE PROCESSES ALONG/S OF FRONT...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER OF
ELY/NELY FLOW FROM SFC-700 MB MAY BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME INLAND MAINTENANCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH-THETAE AIR OVER
PORTIONS S FL. SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE INTO
MID-UPPER LEVEL ICING LAYERS TO POSE MRGL TSTM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR VERY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED...GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2009

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