SWODY2
SPC AC 040520
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST TUE NOV 03 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT
UPPER FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC BY THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
STREAK NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE AND CONSOLIDATING...DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ GULF OF ALASKA...AS WELL AS
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG
WITH DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. HIGH
PLAINS.
AS THIS ALL OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG DIGGING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
RETURN FLOW INLAND. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/04/2009
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