Wednesday, November 4, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE. LITTLE AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET IS
PROGGED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE NOSE OF THIS
FEATURE PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
PROGGED TO SPLIT OFF THE MAIN BELT OF FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY THAT...AS THIS FEATURE DIGS TOWARD A WEAKER BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

DESPITE THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE...LINGERING
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY/ FRIDAY
NIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/04/2009

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