SWOD48
SPC AC 040949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST WED NOV 04 2009
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
IT NOW SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
...WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW...WILL APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURE ...EITHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER INLAND OF COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LARGE VARIABILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN...AND INTERACTION AMONG...THE BELTS OF WESTERLIES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 11/04/2009
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