MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982

ACUS11 KWNS 301745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301745
TXZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301745Z - 301915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX
NNWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN INTENSIFY AND BECOME
ORGANIZED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE HOUSTON AREA INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S F IN SE TX TO THE UPPER
60S F ACROSS NCNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH HAS ENABLED SFC TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS HAS HELPED ENHANCE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF
SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS THE MCD AREA DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND ECMWF. ALSO...SFC WINDS ARE
BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. THIS IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45
TO 50 KT RANGE....SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO RESULT IN
A POTENTIAL FOR WET DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33519767 33269695 32539677 31799667 31439651 30969554
30459509 29849516 29569558 29569691 29819795 30569858
31599890 32679898 33339849 33519767

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