Wednesday, April 11, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0464

ACUS11 KWNS 120243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120243
SCZ000-GAZ000-120345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA INTO CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 120243Z - 120345Z

TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER CNTRL GA WILL POSE A
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EWD/NEWD INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL SC LATER TONIGHT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM E OF ATL TO NEAR AHN...LIKELY DUE
TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA JUST TO THE N OF RETREATING WEDGE
FRONT. MODIFICATION OF 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS LIKELY STABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 250-500 J PER KG/ DOES
EXIST ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.MEAD.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

32888309 33398364 34108356 34458289 34818209 34748118
34538056 33918021 33278071 32768271

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