SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112257
FLZ000-GAZ000-120030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112257Z - 120030Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 2245Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
FROM DECATUR COUNTY GA SSWWD TO ERN LIBERTY/WRN LEO COUNTIES IN THE
CNTRL FL PNHDL....TO 30-50 MILES SW AAF. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE INITIATING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY OR TROUGH BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATION WITH THE LIBERTY/LEO COUNTY FL STORM
EXHIBITING SOME EPISODIC SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...HOWEVER LOCALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG.
TLH VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS
MODESTLY SHEARED BOTH IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM SHR OF
150-180 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 40.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED OWING TO THE WEAK FORCING AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA.
.MEAD.. 04/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
30458490 30888459 31008417 30938321 30698319 30378340
30158380 30108460 29928505
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