SWOD48
SPC AC 161008
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DAY 4 TO ZONAL PROGRESSIVE BY DAY 5. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ADVANCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY DAY 6 AND SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT THIS FEATURE INTO THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS LATE DAY 6. THOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...SOME
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
RETURN NWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
SERN STATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH AN
ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S..
MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY DAY 8...AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. PREFER TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER
FEEL FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING AN AREA FOR DAY
8.
.DIAL.. 02/16/2008
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