Saturday, February 16, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0237

ACUS11 KWNS 160854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160853
TXZ000-161000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W AND SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160853Z - 161000Z

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND W TX WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE/INTENSITY
SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 0730Z IN THE
VICINITY AND N OF SJT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN INCREASING
WAA REGIME ALONG SSELY 40 KT LLJ AND 150-200 NM N OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD FROM MAVERICK COUNTY /SE OF DRT/
TO 40 SE SAT AND THEN NNEWD INTO NERN TX AND ERN OK. A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND 60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF SE AZ/SW NM UPPER LOW/TROUGH BY 12Z WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR STORM ROTATION.
THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER CORES COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...
GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BORDEN/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO
TAYLOR COUNTY...WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN ADDITION TO A HAIL
THREAT SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE AOB 32 F.

.PETERS.. 02/16/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30290114 31320155 32400190 32990152 33170017 32859967
30989919 30159940 29890066

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