SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161236
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-161630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND TX/OK PANHANDLES
INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 161236Z - 161630Z
FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SLEET WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OK.
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD FAR WEST TX...LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS TREND
CONTINUES...FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS/SOME SLEET
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS.
AS SAMPLED BY EARLY MORNING RAOBS FROM AMARILLO TX/LAMONT OK AND
AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...A WARM/FULL MELTING LAYER ATOP A
SHALLOW /0.5 KM/ SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM FREEZING RAIN...MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ICE PELLET/SLEET POTENTIAL.
.GUYER.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
37509914 37359735 35419725 35049940 34680092 34550177
35150272 36120281 36870175
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