SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170441
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL THROUGH NRN LA...SERN
AR...EXTREME WRN MS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...
VALID 170441Z - 170615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 59 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES PERSISTS WITH BAND OF
TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACCELERATE
AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS. AS PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EJECT NEWD INTO OK...AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENTS
SPREAD ACROSS REGION...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY INCREASE.
DURING PAST 3 HOURS...500 MB WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED FROM 55-75 KT
AT CENTRAL LA PROFILER. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND INCLUDES SOME
AREAS N AND NE OF EXISTING WW...IN AND NEAR N-CENTRAL/NERN LA.
ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE AREAS.
MEANWHILE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN
VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS ABOVE RELATIVELY WEAK/SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS AND
BRIEF TORNADOES MAXIMIZED LOCALLY INVOF BOW/LEWP FEATURES. MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG STILL ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW 200 J/KG
BECAUSE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND STABLE AREAS IN LOW LEVELS.
LCH IS LAUNCHING RAOB AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND TO SAMPLE PROXIMITY
INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN LA.
.EDWARDS.. 02/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
29589442 30989358 32299300 33379279 33619188 33459097
32569082 31319131 30149177 29579204 29549225 29579265
29789322 29679382 29669403
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