SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161249
MSZ000-LAZ000-161345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN LA AND SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161249Z - 161345Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS
ACROSS SERN LA AND SWRN/SRN MS...GENERALLY 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM AVOYELLES PARISH LA TO STONE COUNTY MS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TRACKING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT OVER SERN LA. WSR-88D VWP AND 12Z
LCH SOUNDING SHOWED A 30 KT SLY LLJ IN WRN LA WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN SERN LA AS INDICATED BY 12Z SOUNDING AT NEW. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NW OF BTR
IS LIKELY BEING FED BY MORE BUOYANT ELEVATED AIR MASS /MUCAPE AROUND
900 J/KG/ AS DEPICTED BY LCH 12Z SOUNDING. WEAKER INSTABILITY
FARTHER E IN FAR SERN LA/SERN MS SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM GREATER INSTABILITY SOURCE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KT FAVOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.PETERS.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
30178922 30218952 30299022 30399146 30649233 31069241
31529188 31469053 31448924 30748912
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