SWODY2
SPC AC 160602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD
THROUGH MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ATTENDING THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND NRN FL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
..SERN STATES...
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY
FROM MOIST AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN STATES...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPPING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S LIKELY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. MOIST AXIS WILL LIKELY BE PINCHED OFF FARTHER NE FROM
NERN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS DUE TO LINGERING WEDGE OF CP AIR. NWD
ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. A LINE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITHIN THE LINE TO INTENSIFY
OR FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES AS STORMS INTERCEPT
MOIST AXIS. THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES
WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
STORMS MAY UNDERGO A TEMPORARY DECREASE AS THEY CROSS INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY LATE OVER
THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THEY INTERCEPT RETURNING MOIST AXIS.
..TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING VORT MAX. WHILE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THERMAL
TROUGH AND DRY SLOT...MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO LOW
TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.DIAL.. 02/16/2008
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