DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160754
SWODY3
SPC AC 160753

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL...

..SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A BROADER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE ERN STATES MONDAY. BY
12Z MONDAY...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER SERN
CANADA SWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...ERN CAROLINAS INTO NRN FL AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY MID
MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SWD
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

..ERN NC...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM ERN NC INTO COASTAL SC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

..NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN FL EARLY MONDAY...THEN SHIFT SWD INTO
CNTRL FL BY MID-DAY. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND STORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.

.DIAL.. 02/16/2008

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