SWODY1
SPC AC 161614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN
LA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
..SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING AS SEASONABLY
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL DRIVE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
EJECTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH
OF THIS AREA AS 90+ KT H5 AND 120 KT H25 JETS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.
ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS INCREASING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THIS
MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 240/. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SYSTEM...WITH
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
AT 15Z...LEADING EDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR HAS SEEPED WELL EAST OF
I-35 AND SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER NEAR COT NNEWD
TO JUST SE OF CLL AND THEN NNWWD TO A WEAKER LOW CENTER SE OF DAL.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN INTO NERN TX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE
TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND STRONG CINH FROM
PRONOUNCE ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR
STORMS TODAY. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG FROM SERN TX
NWD...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE AND STRONG CAP INTO SRN TX. ROBUST WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT DEEP...FORCED ASCENT AROUND 21Z FROM
PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...WHICH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN TX THROUGH 00Z.
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING
LINE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN AN
ENHANCED RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER
TX COAST. HOWEVER...OVERALL MODE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA BEFORE SYSTEM
INGESTS WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER LA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
/INCLUDING THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.EVANS.. 02/16/2008
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