SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161600
TXZ000-OKZ000-161730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND SW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161600Z - 161730Z
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE OVER A
BROAD REGION FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURS IF MORE VIGOROUS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE A SURFACE-BASED STABLE
LAYER...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN A N-S SWATH FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
INTO SWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN AS STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS LOW LEVEL MOIST PLUME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER BELOW 850MB...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE ENHANCED ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE
IN THE RANGE OF 500-1200 J PER KG GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY JET ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50KT WILL PROMOTE COHERENT/PERSISTENT CELL
CORES AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE EXPANDING
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. IF IT APPEARS THIS TREND IS GETTING
UNDERWAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE...A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
33529793 32109817 29819897 29200000 29800096 30780118
31690091 33110048 34429953 34299848
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