SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162000
LAZ000-TXZ000-162130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162000Z - 162130Z
A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN LA...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL TX TO SERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD FROM THE BIG BEND AREA. POTENT
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70-90KT SWLY 500MB
FLOW...WILL SPREAD EAST ATOP CONFLUENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-40KT TO RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS/MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT PRESENT...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED AS
INDICATED IN 18Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS CAPPING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD SC CLOUD DECK OBSERVED IN SATL IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FORCING ALONG THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION...OVER WILSON COUNTY...AND
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE CAP AND
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVING AS COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EAST.
.CARBIN.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
32769473 32649428 32229386 30929347 30029375 29529420
29209492 28759572 28109714 28289798 28959856 29339823
29879729 30259676 30749647 31349620 31759615 32269583
32849504
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