SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160709
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN TX/EXTREME SRN OK/WRN AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160709Z - 160815Z
ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM NRN TX INTO EXTREME SRN OK AND SEWD
ACROSS E TX TO LA. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. TSTMS OVER SE TX ARE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MAY HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LARGE ARCING AREA OF ONGOING TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM NW/N TX SEWD INTO E TX/LA. AREA WSR-88D VADS AND
WIND PROFILERS SHOWED VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ROTATING STORMS
AS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/
ERN TX AND WRN/SWRN LA. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM S TX...JUST
SE DRT...ENEWD INTO SE TX WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING FROM
SE TX TO OFFSHORE OF LA. DESPITE SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS OK/TX/LA...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE
SWRN STATES...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM S TX TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN UVVS FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE TX/FAR SWRN LA.
THUS...LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO SRN
EXTENT OF ONGOING ARC OF TSTMS AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL AS PRIMARY THREAT.
.PETERS.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
32939916 33379935 34019938 34549894 34489787 34009645
33119494 32279362 31409220 30659203 29639233 29639393
29659501 30939579 32289777
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