SWOD48
SPC AC 080902
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST THU NOV 08 2007
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND
SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS RIDGE MOVES
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WITH AN OPEN TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AT THIS
POINT WITH THE GFS MOVING A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE PLAINS STATES AND THE ECMWF REMAINING ZONAL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN PRESENTS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN NWD INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID-MS VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA CAN NOT BE OUTLOOKED ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 11/08/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment