SWODY1
SPC AC 130038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS APPEARS MINIMAL
THIS EVENING AND UNLIKELY TO INCREASE TONIGHT.
...SRN MO/FAR NRN AR...
POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -17 C AT
500 MB IN SGF RAOB/ HAS YIELDED A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM. THIS MAY STILL FOSTER SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH SCATTERED CELLS/CLUSTERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE OZARK PLATEAU. BUT WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUED DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER MCS...SUGGEST TSTMS
SHOULD LARGELY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 10/13/2011
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