SWODY2
SPC AC 120558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US/NWRN MEXICO
AND THE ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. WHILE AN EMBEDDED/SHORTER-WAVELENGTH PIECE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE SERN
STATES...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...MAINTAINING THE LARGER-SCALE/LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE ERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WRN
ONTARIO SSEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD...AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.
...ERN TN/NERN AL/NRN GA EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS
THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NEWD. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH OVERALL STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
VERY MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SSWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE NEAR PEAK HEATING
-- DESPITE THE OVERALL DEARTH OF INSTABILITY. ONE OR TWO CELLS
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...AND THUS LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
HAIL/WIND WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/12/2011
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