MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2252

ACUS11 KWNS 122046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122046
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS....FAR NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122046Z - 122145Z

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS...AND FAR NERN OK...WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS
TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AMPLE CLEARING FROM ERN KS/OK INTO
WRN MO IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO THE UPPER 70S. COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-16 DEG C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TOP SOUNDING/ ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HAS YIELDED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG/. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE FOCUSED ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM
30 ENE CDJ TO 20 ESE OJC TO 30 WSW GMJ AT 20Z...AND FURTHER AIDED BY
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW DECREASES MARKEDLY
OVER WRN MO TO THE E OF THE UPPER JET...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND ANY SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE SVR HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39269262 38389296 36889374 36569451 36289499 36499542
37169539 38459509 39059473 39459432 40089369 40219339
39999290 39269262

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