SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121722
NCZ000-121845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121722Z - 121845Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS FAR ERN NC.
ISOLATED THREATS EXIST FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADO...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A WW.
AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER ERN
JONES COUNTY NC ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION /MULTICELLS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS/. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER SERN NC WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE OVER
EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A SMALL MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THESE LATTER
AREAS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID STRONGER
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS /AS INDICATED BY JONES COUNTY STORM/.
MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE PRODUCTION TODAY. THUS...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE
GREATER THREATS. THE LATTER WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE-3 KM CAPE
VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG COMBINED WITH SURFACE VORTICITY IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FAVORING LOW LEVEL STRETCHING.
..PETERS.. 10/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34967794 35487728 36027632 36257548 35737523 34907557
34417672 33927768 33757797 33797848 34107875 34657837
34967794
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