DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021943
SWODY1
SPC AC 021941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD.
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...POOR MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WEAK FORCING...AND MODERATE DEEP SHEAR PARALLELING THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LINE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR HTS. MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND POOR
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY TEMPER THE THREAT DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP SPEED SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
SETUP IS STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR A COUPLE OF ROTATING STORMS...BUT
INDIVIDUAL HAZARD RISKS APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2012/

...MID/UPPER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY VEERING TO THE SW WITH TIME. LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN REMOVED FROM MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS AND SE VA...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NWD PROGRESSING
WEDGE FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS WRN NC INTO CNTRL VA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY
LIMIT COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES 1.75-2.25 INCHES AND ADEQUATE SWLY MEAN FLOW AROUND 30 KT MAY
LEAD TO A SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUST.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL KY/SRN IND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
...BRINGING A WARM FRONT N ACROSS OH/WV. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S WILL
LEAD TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000
J/KG. BACKED E/SE SFC WINDS WITH STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KT
WILL FAVOR A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED...WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS.
HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

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