SWODY2
SPC AC 021714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CANADA
AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION IN PATTERN
FORECAST AS TROUGHS DEEPEN OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND ERN CANADA. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO CNTRL OR ERN SD. WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN ND AND NRN
PARTS OF MN AND WI WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
..ERN ND INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA MONDAY PRIOR TO MOVING MORE SEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
SSWLY LLJ WHICH WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED
TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO NRN MN.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KT. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH MAY TEND
TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO THE N/NE
OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL LIMITATION...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
.MEAD.. 09/02/2007
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