SWODY2
SPC AC 020534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NRN PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY...
PRIMARY WLYS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON LABOR
DAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE TO NRN QUEBEC BY
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THIS IMPULSE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GRTLKS REGION AND THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL EDGE EWD AND REACH
WA/ORE BY 12Z TUE. MINOR PERTURBATIONS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TOP THE RIDGE BEFORE AIDING IN THE EVENTUAL QUEBEC
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION.
AS THE PAC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NWRN U.S. COAST...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ASSOCD WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TIED TO THE
CURRENT CANADIAN IMPULSE...WILL INDUCE ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR
NRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE EML. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NRN/CNTRL MN
ON LABOR DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. LATE SEASON EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND LOCAL ACCUMULATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VCNTY THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MODEST PEAK
HEATING MLCAPE VALUES. BUT...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE
ABSENT ASIDE FROM LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES DERIVED FROM
THE LLJ. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT...ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
MN...AS OPPOSED TO ALONG THE FRONT/WARM SECTOR WHERE MODEST CINH
WILL BE IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AOA 45 KTS AND
MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD
WCNTRL WI/SERN MN BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
.RACY.. 09/02/2007
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