SWOD48
SPC AC 020848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION...
UPR TROUGH OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON TUESDAY WILL GLANCE OFF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE TO THE UPR GRTLKS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND RATE OF
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO VARY AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF AND
UKMET. NONETHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SRN PLAINS NWD AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS...UPR MS VLY AND
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS REGIONS WED THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE PREFERRED ECMWF
SOLUTION...PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING/MASS CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PASS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA...LIMITING THE THREAT
FOR A WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIKELY
CONSIDERABLE WARM SECTOR CINH.
.RACY.. 09/02/2007
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