SWODY1
SPC AC 021616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PARTS OF SRN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN AZ...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM SRN UT INTO SERN CA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER AZ AND ELY FLOW OVER
SRN CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVELS OVER NRN HALF OF AZ WWD ACROSS THE UPPER DESERTS OF SRN
CA...ALTHOUGH ONLY VERY SMALL DECREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IPW ARE EVIDENT FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA. VERY STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SERN MOUNTAINS OF AZ AS WELL
AS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA. STORMS OVER SRN CA WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE PULSE
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS ON PHX SOUNDING BETWEEN
700-500 MB HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY TO 15-20 KT...WHICH MAY
AID STORMS PROPAGATING OFF THE RIM INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A 5% SEVERE
WIND PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OUTLOOK. ANTICIPATED LOW
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
.WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/02/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment