SWOD48
SPC AC 230723
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LOW...THOUGH SOME
CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. EVOLUTION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF --
BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 5-6 /WED. MAY 27 TO THU. MAY 28/. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A SLOW EXPANSION IN CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
TROUGHING...DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
ASIDE FROM NEW ENGLAND...MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY WEAK IN MOST AREAS...UNTIL EXPANDING ERN TROUGH SUPPORTS A
LIMITED INCREASE. ONE OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS TX -- WHERE
SUBTLE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH AN OTHERWISE MODEST SRN STREAM MAY
PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW FIELD. THIS ATOP
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SLYS WOULD SUGGEST A SHEAR PROFILE
OCCASIONALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
ANY THREAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING ANY
THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 05/23/2009
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