SWODY2
SPC AC 130540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID SOUTH TO SOUTH TX...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE GFS AND NAM ALLOWING A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PROGRESS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY 15/00Z. WITH
60-90M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN MO/AR INTO WRN TN IT
APPEARS THIS ZONE WILL BE WHERE FOCUSED ASCENT ENHANCES FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. ULTIMATELY THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
DESPITE THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION WILL BE SWWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN/SOUTH TX WHERE FORCING WILL BE MEAGER TO
NEUTRAL. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ACROSS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT WEAK SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DOES NOT
PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5% PROBS FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE LOW PROBS IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
...CNTRL ROCKIES...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO ID/UT/WRN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ENHANCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
..DARROW.. 03/13/2011
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