MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0222

ACUS11 KWNS 131931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131931
CAZ000-ORZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN CA AND SWRN OR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131931Z - 132130Z

RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY LOW TOPPED LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ONTO THE COAST OF NWRN CA AND SWRN OREGON BY
21Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL OR ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
WW. LOW WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

A LOW TOPPED BAND OF STORMS HAS FORMED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE
COAST OF NWRN CA AND SWRN OREGON MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35-40 KT.
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DPVA AND
FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS AS ZONE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVE ONSHORE. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
JETS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH. BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST EVENT.

..DIAL.. 03/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

LAT...LON 42102345 40872317 39762372 40352421 41552406 42362432
42102345

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