SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151703
FLZ000-151900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL...FL KEYS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...
VALID 151703Z - 151900Z
WW 148 SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES...ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 1645Z NEAR XMR-FMY LINE. ASSOCIATED BAND
OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH AIR MASS
THAT WAS STRONGLY HEATED BEFORE SOME SHADING FROM ANVIL CANOPY. SFC
TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S ALONG E COAST -- COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S -- YIELD MLCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VWP DATA AND RUC
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOW IN
PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PRE-STORM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH NWD
EXTENT BENEATH MORE INTENSE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND RANGES FROM
AROUND 30-35 KT AT MIA TO 50-60 KT NEAR XMR. TORNADO REPORTED AT
15Z N POLK COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS AND ANY
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SRN PORTION OF LINE ALSO WILL
AFFECT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOLLOWED 1-2
HOURS THEREAFTER BY MARQUESAS KEYS AND EYW REGION.
.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
26568220 27358142 28108056 26898004 25658014 25018046
24668123 24538214 24648296 24678248 24788151 24968108
25048100 25148110 25288116 25378116 25678129 25898162
25828171 26418191
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