MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505

ACUS11 KWNS 151651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151651
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-152245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...VT/NH/NWRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 151651Z - 152245Z

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH 1-2 IN/HR FALL RATES POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE S.
MEAN THICKNESS VALUES WILL INCREASE AND WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO
CHANGE TO RAIN OVER ERN NY INTO MA...WHILE AREAS OF NRN NY/VT/NH
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MD AREA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW/DENDRITE PRODUCTION ALOFT WHICH WILL
FALL THROUGH NEAR FREEZING SATURATED THERMAL LAYER RESULTING IN
HEAVY SNOW. HRLY QPF VALUES UPSTREAM INDICATE 0.10 - 0.20 LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ALREADY OCCURRING.

.JEWELL.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42517192 42337243 42347356 42477469 42727547 42887589
43527582 44357586 44967506 44967437 45047301 44657236
44077179 43347126 43077138

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