SWODY1
SPC AC 160046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
INTENSE SURFACE LOW JUST E OF THE TIDEWATER REGION WILL DEEPEN
FURTHER TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NWD TO NEAR LONG ISLAND BY 16/12Z.
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN NC AS OF 0030Z INVOF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE PROGRESSING
SEWD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE. ANY THREAT OF HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY 02Z.
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITHIN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME OCCURRING TO THE N AND
NW OF DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW.
..INTERMOUNTAIN W...
POCKET OF RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -24 C AT 500
MB/ ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...NAMELY OVER PORTIONS OF NV/UT IN EXIT
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
FROM TROUGH AXIS OVER AZ. HERE...LOCALLY STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN COLOCATED WITH THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES.
.MEAD.. 04/16/2007
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