SWODY1
SPC AC 160545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM. FARTHER
N...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...WHILE ALONG THE E COAST INTENSE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FRONTAL SURGE ATTENDANT TO POWERFUL ERN U.S. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM HAS
EFFECTIVELY PUSHED S THROUGH GULF BASIN WITH RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND POINTS S. AS
SUCH...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED INVOF LEE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
NONETHELESS...EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM WITHIN ZONE
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SYSTEM. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE BY
EARLY EVENING ALONG LEE TROUGH.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 50-60 KT. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME OF THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
/GIVEN THE DEEP...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ AND SOME HAIL.
.MEAD/TAYLOR.. 04/16/2007
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