SWODY2
SPC AC 160551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND
NERN TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST.
HOWEVER...GREATER CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/WRN AND CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN -- CONSISTING
OF JUST A WEAK LOW -- SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE WEAKENING S CENTRAL CONUS
FEATURE.
..N CENTRAL/NERN TX...
WHILE PRECIPITATION/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME...MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS /H5 TEMPERATURES -18 TO -20 C/ SHOULD YIELD INSTABILITY
/500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS.
WHILE SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...STEEP-LAPSE RATES -- AND
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID UPDRAFT ACCELERATION -- SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG/MULTICELL STORMS. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL --
WARRANTS THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK.
.GOSS.. 04/16/2007
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