SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152012
VAZ000-NCZ000-152215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC...SERN VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...150...
VALID 152012Z - 152215Z
SVR THREAT CONTINUES FOR WWS 149/150. GREATEST TORNADIC SUPERCELL
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NEWD OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA...IN ADVANCE OF
DEEPENING/984 MB SFC LOW AND AMIDST PRONOUNCED FIELD OF ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE FALLS. AT 20Z THIS LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR RWI CLOSE TO
I-95. ISALLOBARIC FORCING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AS
5-7 MB/2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN NC/VA BORDER AREA
SHIFT NEWD TOWARD SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WILL ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS
OPTIMALLY ACROSS SERN VA/NERN NC COASTAL PLAIN AND TIDEWATER
REGION...YIELDING EXTREME 0-1 KM SRH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS NOT UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL SURGE
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ...AND SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH ANY
BOWING/LEWP FORMATIONS IN LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL. FARTHER SW OVER
E-CENTRAL/SERN NC...SFC WINDS ARE VEERING BEHIND STRONGEST PRESSURE
FALLS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR
MODES...BUT STILL WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.
COLD FRONTAL SURGE FOLLOWS BEHIND CYCLONE ACROSS N-CENTRAL NC...WITH
ASSOCIATED FINE LINE WELL DEFINED ON REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. TSTMS
MOVING ATOP COLD FRONTAL SURGE IN NRN NC WILL MOVE ATOP 50S TO LOW
60S F SFC TEMPS AND LOSE SFC-BASED INFLOW RAPIDLY...BUT STILL MAY BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL BEFORE THEY WEAKEN.
.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
34467745 34847846 35637960 35608034 35208077 35398110
35808054 36297965 36567747 37227718 37527624 37937533
37177582 36927597 36237576 35647544 35227553 35147584
34597656 34687666 34637710
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