SWODY1
SPC AC 151954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NC AND SOUTHEAST VA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
..SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AS IT ROTATES ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERIES OF DEEPENING
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ENEWD INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF
THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER DE...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER
DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NNEWD REACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY.
FARTHER S...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM MUCH OF SC AND
GA...WITH THE SRN PORTION EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH SRN FL FROM VRB TO
NEAR APF. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE S OF THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING.
..NC/SOUTHEAST VA...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
TSTMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FAR NERN NC AND OUTER BANKS.
MEANWHILE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NC INTO SERN VA WITHIN VICINITY OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THESE
PARTS OF SE VA AND NC. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG AND EAST OF TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT AS COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING SRN APPALACHIANS TROUGH SPREAD EWD.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
..SRN FL...
BROAD ZONE OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AND RESULT IN FURTHER DECREASE IN AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...THE OVERALL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
.PETERS.. 04/15/2007
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