DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150554
SWODY1
SPC AC 150552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
SUNDAY EVENING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER WRN NC
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NE DURING THE DAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE SRN
TIP OF FL BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NRN GA EWD
THROUGH NRN SC AND SERN NC WILL LIFT NWD INTO SERN VA EARLY SUNDAY.

..ERN CAROLINAS...

A STRONG 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT IN WARM SECTOR E OF
SURFACE LOW FROM NRN FL NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
EARLY SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWD
INTO NC WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE INTO ERN VA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME DESTABILIZATION...BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AOB 500 J/KG DUE TO EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS IN WARM SECTOR. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MID DAY.

..FL...

STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MOIST...RELATIVELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

.DIAL/TAYLOR.. 04/15/2007

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